The Los Angeles Lakers went into free agency needing a star center, and when the clock struck midnight they got it at least half right, reportedly reaching a verbal agreement with Timofey Mozgov on a four-year deal worth $64 million.
Acquired from the the Denver Nuggets in January 2015, the Cleveland Cavaliers sent two first-round picks for his services, and while he performed admirably in his first half season with Cleveland, he crashed and burned the very next year.
Timofey Mozgov: 4-yr, $64M deal w/ Lakers.
Lakers starting C in 2015-16:
PPG: 5.9 (2nd-worst in NBA)
RPG: 4.9 (worst)
FG%: 44.1 (2nd-worst)
In 2014-15, the 7-foot-1 center averaged 10.6 points and 6.9 rebounds in 46 games for the Cavaliers, production worth 2.2 wins above replacement. He then seemingly put the NBA on notice with his breakout performance in the playoffs, scoring 10.6 points with 7.3 rebounds per game. But it wouldn’t last. The following season he averaged 6.3 points and 4.4 rebounds during the regular season (worth 0.8 wins above replacement) and scored a mere 15 points in 76 minutes during Cleveland’s title run.
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According to ESPN’s real plus-minus metric (minus-4.54), which estimates a player’s on-court impact, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions, after accounting for teammates and opponents, Mozgov, who turns 30 years old in July, was second only to Philadelphia’s Jahlil Okafor as the worst center in the NBA last year.
Based on what teams must pay replacement-level players (approximately $1.3 million per player), the amount a team spends above and beyond those minimum contracts for a 12-man roster ($76.7 million), and the number of wins it takes to go from replacement-level to league average (25), each win above replacement a player can contribute to a team is worth $3.1 million, Mozgov would need to provide similar value to the Thunder’s Steven Adams or Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic. But that would mean more points, more rebounds, and more blocked shots.
Mozgov can help the Lakers on defense, but that’s only because Los Angeles allowed a league-high 109.3 points per 100 possessions last season, while the Cavs allowed just 103.7 with Mozgov on the court. That dipped slightly when he was on the bench (101.6).
To be fair, Mozgov struggled with guarding the ball handler on pick-and-roll plays — the rest of his defense was solid.
When asked to defend pick and rolls — which was run against him on 52.1 percent of possessions — he allowed 0.89 points per possession, putting him 34th of 36 centers defending at least 200 pick-and-roll plays. In the post, isolation, and against spot-up shooters he was markedly improved.
It’s no surprise that the spike in the salary cap has created a huge chasm between player compensation and valuation. But even if you give Mozgov the benefit of the doubt and think he will bring the Lakers’ defense to a respectable level, his offensive shortcomings will make this contract more of a detriment to their rebuilding process instead of a step froward.
More on NBA free agency:
Welcome (back) to Miami. Hassan Whiteside re-ups with Heat
Clippers reportedly want to sell Kevin Durant on ‘Big Four’ plan
Thunder hopes to sign Al Horford, reuniting him with college coach Billy Donovan
Joakim Noah expected to sign with New York Knicks
LeBron James opts out of Cavs contract, as expected
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